A Practical Approach to Causal Inference over Time

Authors: Martina Cinquini, Isacco Beretta, Salvatore Ruggieri, Isabel Valera

AAAI 2025 | Venue PDF | Archive PDF | Plain Text | LLM Run Details

Reproducibility Variable Result LLM Response
Research Type Experimental In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed framework achieves strong performance in terms of observational forecasting while enabling accurate estimation of the causal effect of interventions on dynamical systems. We demonstrate, through a case study, the potential practical questions that can be addressed using the proposed causal VAR framework.
Researcher Affiliation Academia 1Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy 2Department of Computer Science, Saarland University, Saarbr ucken, Germany EMAIL, EMAIL, EMAIL
Pseudocode No The paper describes methods using mathematical equations and prose but does not include any explicitly labeled pseudocode or algorithm blocks.
Open Source Code Yes Code https://github.com/marti5ini/ci-over-time
Open Datasets Yes Datasets We rely on two synthetic datasets, German6 and Pendulum, and the real-world Census dataset7. German sim- 6This dataset is inspired on https://archive.ics.uci.edu/dataset/ 144/statlog+german+credit+data 7https://data.census.gov/
Dataset Splits No The paper mentions using a "test set" for evaluation but does not specify the splitting percentages, absolute counts, or methodology for creating training, validation, and test splits needed for reproduction.
Hardware Specification No The paper does not provide specific details about the hardware used to run the experiments, such as GPU models, CPU types, or memory specifications.
Software Dependencies No The paper does not list specific software dependencies with their version numbers, such as programming languages, libraries, or frameworks used for implementation.
Experiment Setup Yes Interventions We perform causal interventions on the root node Expertise and observe the effect on the target variable Credit Score. For the additive case, we apply F = 0.2, while for forcing, we use F = 1 with a target value of ˆE = 5.